Step-by-step evaluation of photovoltaic module performance related to outdoor parameters: evaluation of the uncertainty

Anne Migan-Dubois (1) , Jordi Badosa (2) , Fausto Calderón Obaldía (1) , Olivier Atlan (2) , Vincent Bourdin (3) , Marko Pavlov (2) , Dae Young Kim (2) , Yvan Bonnassieux (4)

1 GeePs - Laboratoire Génie électrique et électronique de Paris
2 LMD - Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique (UMR 8539)
3 LIMSI - Laboratoire d'Informatique pour la Mécanique et les Sciences de l'Ingénieur
4 LPICM - Laboratoire de physique des interfaces et des couches minces [Palaiseau]

Knowing the uncertainty in the PV production forecast is crucial in the optimization of smart-grid operations and in its stability. In this paper, we present uncertainty calculation in the PV energy production forecast process, calculated step by step. From horizontal irradiance and ambient temperature, all the steps needed to evaluate the PV production are studied with a special focus on the comparison between calculation and measurements. The uncertainty is evaluated by computing the relative mean bias error and the relative mean absolute error.

Mots clés: modelling; smart-grids; outdoor characterization; PV forecast; Index Terms -PV forecast

Domaines: Energie électrique

Anne Migan-Dubois, Jordi Badosa, Fausto Calderón Obaldía, Olivier Atlan, Vincent Bourdin, et al.. Step-by-step evaluation of photovoltaic module performance related to outdoor parameters: evaluation of the uncertainty. 44th IEEE Photovoltaic Specialists Conference (IEEE-PVSC), Jun 2017, Washington, United States. pp.626-631, ⟨10.1109/PVSC.2017.8366615⟩. ⟨hal-01630076⟩